Nepal tomorrow votes for an assembly body in historic elections that will rewrite the constitution, and which are expected to unseat the unpopular King Gyanendra, abolishing the country's 240-year-old monarchy.
Wedged between India and China, Nepal is strategically important, and its 17 million voters have been wooed by more than 70 political parties, many of them ingenues in the rough and tumble of democracy. The campaign, the first since the late 90s, has been relatively peaceful – and the poll comes after a decade of bloody civil war.
However, a fresh wave of violence, including a reported six killings today, has rocked the polls. Tens of thousands of police officers have been deployed across the Himalayan country, and officials say security has been tightened around the 21,000 polling booths.
Why now?
The polls tomorrow are the climax of a peace process that ended a decade-long war launched by Maoist guerrillas that left at least 13,000 dead.
Why did the Maoists give up the gun?
The Maoists called a ceasefire after King Gyanendra restored parliament and ended a year of absolute rule in April 2006. The palace had faced weeks of strikes and protests on the streets. Political parties joined hands with the Maoists as a prelude to bringing them into government.
Will the Maoists become a normal political party?
As long as the polls are fair and free, it is unlikely the Maoists will return to war. The Maoist leadership has kept 30,000 soldiers from the People's Liberation Army into UN-monitored camps and signed up for peace.
But haven't the Maoists been accused of intimidating voters in Nepal?
Yes. The Maoists' youth wing has run a campaign of terror in many towns. But they have also been the targets of attacks. It was claimed today that six of their party workers had been shot dead.
Is the monarchy to be ended immediately?
No. Nepal's Hindu monarchy is to be scrapped after elections for the constituent assembly. The former rebels made this a condition of entering politics, and political parties accepted that the monarchy would be abolished.
What will be left of the monarchy in Nepal?
Not much. The present king is feared rather than respected. Gyanendra came to the throne after his nephew killed most of the royal family during an argument over whom he was allowed marry in June 2001. Sensing the weakness of Nepal's politicians and accusing them of inaction during the civil war, he seized power in early 2005. Analysts say he set about creating an absolute monarchy in the Hindu kingdom despite the clear unpopularity of the then heir apparent, Crown Prince Paras, a playboy infamous for his reckless driving. But after street protests drove him from power, the king was slowly cut down to size. He remains extraordinarily rich in an exceptionally poor country, but he will be taxed, and his spending controlled, while his acts will be open to scrutiny in court or in parliament. His country estates are likely be split up and sold off.
Will the Maoist guerrillas be disarmed after the elections?
Yes, but no one knows how. The UN security council gave the UN peace mission, which oversees the demobilisation, a remit only until July. The Maoists want their fighters absorbed into the Nepalese army, but the move has been opposed by officers. Big questions also remain unresolved over the thousands of people who disappeared in the civil war.
Did China back the Maoists?
No. Until recently, Beijing disowned them. The Maoists say they are inspired by Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong, and want to establish a communist state. Led by Prachanda, or "the fierce one", the Maoists say they found inspiration in Peru's Maoist Shining Path guerrillas. Prachanda says that, unlike Peru's rebels, they decided to enter politics because it offered a better way to found a socialist state. Up close, Nepal's Maoists appear more like India's Marxist parties, who gave up revolution for democratic evolution decades ago and are now part of the mainstream.
Ethnic violence erupted last year in Nepal. Why?
Identity politics have bubbled beneath the surface of Nepal for decades. The country's 27 million people are as diverse as its topography. Nepal has 100 native tongues and half a dozen religions. There are 60 indigenous nationalities, popularly perceived to be Mongoloid, who constitute more than 35% of the population. Overlaying these identities are caste and gender. So the Indo-origin people of the plains, the Madhesi, also have their own internal stratification, with untouchables at the bottom of the pile. People living in the hills, known as Pahadis, have traditionally held power in Nepal. Yet the arrival of democracy in 1950, and then again in 1990, did little to include Nepal's minorities.
The 1990 constitution, while an improvement on the non-democratic system that preceded it, entrenched power in the hands of the few. The Hindu religion was promoted. Sanskrit and Nepali were designated as the national languages. Despite a long history in Nepal, Buddhism became a bystander religion in the country. Until 2006, power was consolidated in the hands of the Hindu elite, dominated by two castes, the Brahmins and the Chettris. Whether the palace or the parliament was supreme was largely irrelevant. Caste groups from either politics or royalty dominated Nepal.
The result was an alarming capture of power. The Brahmin-Chettris, who make up 30% of the population, occupied two-thirds of the top positions in the security forces, judiciary and civil service. By comparison, the indigenous communities took up just 7% of the high-ranking posts. The solution to the complex issue is one of the big issues facing the new assembly. The Madhesis - roughly a third of Nepal's population - are now demanding rights after years of neglect. This has brought them into conflict with powerful vested interests. For example, the Nepalese army insists it will not accept any Madhesi recruitment. Some groups have started from where the Maoists left off, and taken to the hills with arms. Political violence has killed over 100 people in the last 12 months.
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